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Its early two-point super-linear estimate was later displaced by Paper II's six-model study, which leaves the super-linearity claim unresolved.", "date": "17 January 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/paper-i-arc-principle", "pdf": true, "txt": "/research/papers/paper-i-arc-principle.txt", "cff": "/research/papers/paper-i-arc-principle.cff" }, "osf": "https://osf.io/b6n27/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/B6N27", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Paper-I-ARC-Principle", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "paper-ii-experimental-validation", "roman": "II", "kind": "paper", "title": "Paper II · The ARC Theory · Law I, the ARC Principle · Blinded Cross-Architecture Replication and the Retraction of a Super-Linear Estimate", "description": "This paper presents experimental validation of the ARC Principle across multiple frontier AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Gemini, Grok, Groq Qwen, GPT), confirming that error rates decrease according to a power law with recursive depth. The form of recursion determines the scaling regime: sequential re…", "date": "22 January 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/paper-ii-experimental-validation", "pdf": true, "txt": "/research/papers/paper-ii-experimental-validation.txt", "cff": "/research/papers/paper-ii-experimental-validation.cff" }, "osf": "https://osf.io/8fjma/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/8FJMA", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Paper-II-Experimental-Validation", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "paper-iii-alignment-scaling-problem", "roman": "III", "kind": "paper", "title": "Paper III · The ARC Theory · Law II, the ARC Co-Scaling Law · The Alignment Scaling Problem: Why External AI Safety Approaches Cannot Scale With Recursive Capability", "description": "This paper reports alignment contrasts in three architecture-dependent tiers, positive, flat and negative, and reads the flat tier as compatible with, though not a measurement of, an alignment exponent near zero, which would mean safety degrading relative to capability as recursive depth increases. The registration registers that reading as contestable in P19 and records that the author expects a result materially above zero and below the keep-pace threshold, which partially refutes P19 as worded; a failure on its zero-scaling axis removes the flatness claim and nothing more. The sequential advantage it builds on was demonstrated earlier and independently by Sharma and Chopra…", "date": "9 February 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/paper-iii-alignment-scaling-problem", "pdf": true, "txt": "/research/papers/paper-iii-alignment-scaling-problem.txt", "cff": "/research/papers/paper-iii-alignment-scaling-problem.cff" }, "osf": "https://osf.io/hqcgf/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/HQCGF", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Paper-III-Alignment-Scaling-Problem", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "paper-iv-a-baked-in-vs-computed-alignment", "roman": "IV.a", "kind": "paper", "title": "Paper IV.a · The ARC Theory · Alignment Response Classes Under Inference-Time Depth", "description": "This paper presents evidence that frontier language models fall into distinct alignment response classes when inference-time reasoning depth is varied under blinded evaluation. In the complete v5 experiment, six frontier models were tested with four-layer blinding and six to seven blind scorers. Thr…", "date": "16 March 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/paper-iv-a-baked-in-vs-computed-alignment", "pdf": true, "txt": "/research/papers/paper-iv-a-baked-in-vs-computed-alignment.txt", "cff": "/research/papers/paper-iv-a-baked-in-vs-computed-alignment.cff" }, "osf": "https://osf.io/mb9r6/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/MB9R6", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Paper-IV-a-Baked-In-vs-Computed-Alignment", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "paper-iv-b-alignment-saturation-at-low-depth", "roman": "IV.b", "kind": "paper", "title": "Paper IV.b · The ARC Theory · Alignment Saturation Is Architecture-Dependent", "description": "This paper analyses the relationship between inference-time reasoning depth and ethical reasoning quality using the ARC Alignment Scaling experiments. The original v4 analysis suggested that alignment quality saturates rapidly, with most gains captured by the first increment of additional reasoning.", "date": "16 March 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/paper-iv-b-alignment-saturation-at-low-depth", "pdf": true, "txt": "/research/papers/paper-iv-b-alignment-saturation-at-low-depth.txt", "cff": "/research/papers/paper-iv-b-alignment-saturation-at-low-depth.cff" }, "osf": "https://osf.io/a7r56/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/A7R56", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Paper-IV-b-Alignment-Saturation-at-Low-Depth", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "paper-iv-c-arc-align-benchmark", "roman": "IV.c", "kind": "paper", "title": "Paper IV.c · The ARC Theory · ARC-Align: a Blind Benchmark for Depth-Variable AI Alignment Evaluation", "description": "This paper presents ARC-Align, a blind benchmark for evaluating AI alignment quality as a function of inference-time reasoning depth. Current alignment evaluations typically test models at a single, uncontrolled reasoning depth without adversarial pressure or rigorous blinding. ARC-Align addresses t…", "date": "16 March 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/paper-iv-c-arc-align-benchmark", "pdf": true, "txt": "/research/papers/paper-iv-c-arc-align-benchmark.txt", "cff": "/research/papers/paper-iv-c-arc-align-benchmark.cff" }, "osf": "https://osf.io/j3q2e/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/J3Q2E", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Paper-IV-c-ARC-Align-Benchmark", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "paper-iv-d-the-effect-of-blinding-on-ai-alignment-evaluation", "roman": "IV.d", "kind": "paper", "title": "Paper IV.d · The ARC Theory · The Effect of Blinding on AI Alignment Evaluation", "description": "One apparent positive result went flat, another turned negative, a third held flat, when blinding and other protocol components changed together.", "date": "16 March 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/paper-iv-d-the-effect-of-blinding-on-ai-alignment-evaluation", "pdf": true, "txt": "/research/papers/paper-iv-d-the-effect-of-blinding-on-ai-alignment-evaluation.txt", "cff": "/research/papers/paper-iv-d-the-effect-of-blinding-on-ai-alignment-evaluation.cff" }, "osf": "https://osf.io/2s3e6/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/2S3E6", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Paper-IV-d-The-Effect-of-Blinding-on-AI-Alignment-Evaluation", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "paper-v-stewardship-gene", "roman": "V", "kind": "paper", "title": "Paper V · The ARC Theory · The Eden Protocol · The Stewardship Gene: Stakeholder Care as a Probe of Embedded Values", "description": "This paper presents empirical evidence from a six-model Eden Protocol intervention suite (Claude Opus, DeepSeek, Gemini Flash, Grok Fast, Groq Qwen, GPT), testing whether embedding stakeholder care -- the explicit enumeration and consideration of affected parties before ethical reasoning -- is the m…", "date": "16 March 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/paper-v-stewardship-gene", "pdf": true, "cff": "/research/papers/paper-v-stewardship-gene.cff", "txt": true }, "osf": "https://osf.io/kzeya/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/KZEYA", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Paper-V-Stewardship-Gene", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "paper-vi-honey-architecture", "roman": "VI", "kind": "paper", "title": "Paper VI · The ARC Theory · The Eden Protocol · The Honey Architecture: Safety Built into the Objective", "description": "Simulation evidence that embedding safety inside the optimisation objective of a self-modifying system (capability multiplied by safety, the honey architecture) averts the collapse that capability-only optimisation produces in toy networks that rewrite their own hyperparameters; a v3 adversarial run separates only on safety retention, the v4 scaling advantage is constant rather than compounding, and a six-model live pilot shows the decoupled-safety problem is real in frontier models.", "date": "16 March 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/paper-vi-honey-architecture", "pdf": true, "cff": "/research/papers/paper-vi-honey-architecture.cff", "txt": true }, "osf": "https://osf.io/8ez2n/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/8EZ2N", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Paper-VI-Honey-Architecture", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "paper-vii-cauchy-unification", "roman": "VII", "kind": "paper", "title": "Paper VII · The ARC Theory · Law I, the ARC Principle · Cauchy Unification: the Classification Behind the Law’s Form", "description": "Cauchy's four functional equations -- additive, multiplicative, exponential, and logarithmic -- are the only continuous solutions to their respective composition constraints. This paper argues that this 200-year-old mathematical result has a physically testable consequence: under the stated axioms,…", "date": "16 March 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/paper-vii-cauchy-unification", "pdf": true, "txt": "/research/papers/paper-vii-cauchy-unification.txt", "cff": "/research/papers/paper-vii-cauchy-unification.cff" }, "osf": "https://osf.io/x6wa7/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/X6WA7", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Paper-VII-Cauchy-Unification", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "paper-viii-the-load-bearing-proof", "roman": "VIII", "kind": "paper", "title": "Paper VIII · The ARC Theory · Law V, the ARC Embedding Law · The Eden Protocol · The Load-Bearing Test: Whether Safety and Capability Are Structurally Entangled", "description": "The assumption that AI safety imposes a capability tax has shaped alignment research for a decade. It has also created the single most dangerous incentive in the field: if safety costs performance, then the rational economic actor will defer safety until competitive pressure permits it -- by which p…", "date": "18 March 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/paper-viii-the-load-bearing-proof", "pdf": true, "cff": "/research/papers/paper-viii-the-load-bearing-proof.cff", "txt": true }, "osf": "https://osf.io/7yj4e/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/7YJ4E", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Paper-VIII-The-Load-Bearing-Proof", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "paper-ix-synthesis-and-roadmap", "roman": "IX", "kind": "paper", "title": "Paper IX · The ARC Theory · Synthesis and Roadmap", "description": "The synthesis paper: it brings the papers before it into one assessment of what is proven, what is inconclusive and what remains to be tested.", "date": "18 March 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/paper-ix-synthesis-and-roadmap", "pdf": true, "cff": "/research/papers/paper-ix-synthesis-and-roadmap.cff", "txt": true }, "osf": "https://osf.io/k7ruz/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/K7RUZ", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Paper-IX-Synthesis-and-Roadmap", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "paper-x-coupled-coscaling-correction", "roman": "X", "kind": "paper", "title": "Paper X · The ARC Theory · Law II, the ARC Co-Scaling Law · Correction That Out-Scales Drift", "description": "The coupled co-scaling correction for keeping AI systems inside a safe corrective envelope.", "date": "3 July 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/paper-x-coupled-coscaling-correction", "txt": "/research/papers/paper-x-coupled-coscaling-correction.txt", "cff": "/research/papers/paper-x-coupled-coscaling-correction.cff", "pdf": true }, "osf": "https://osf.io/bse2q/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/BSE2Q", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Paper-X-Coupled-CoScaling-Correction", "status": "published", "priority_disclosure": "26 June 2026" }, { "slug": "paper-xi-convergence", "roman": "XI", "kind": "paper", "title": "Paper XI · The ARC Theory · Law I, the ARC Principle · Convergent Evidence for Recursive Amplification: a Graded Cross-Domain Register", "description": "A dated, graded convergence record across AI, quantum computing, hardware, doctrine and mathematics; 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A testable creation theory: if the ultimate endpoint of innovation is the capability to create universes, humanity may be creating a creator, and nothing in the theory prevents that creator from being the one that fine-tuned our universe: with non-linear ti…", "date": "3 July 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/hrih-paper", "txt": "/research/papers/hrih-paper.txt", "cff": "/research/papers/hrih-paper.cff", "pdf": true }, "osf": "https://osf.io/uydxq/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/UYDXQ", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/HRIH-Paper", "status": "speculative" }, { "slug": "foundational", "roman": "F1", "kind": "framework", "title": "Foundational Paper · The ARC Theory · Law I, the ARC Principle · Recursive Amplification as a Cross-Domain Structural Principle", "description": "Between 2024 and 2026, several external research programmes reported that recursive or recurrent processing gave capability gains beyond linear accumulation; the convergence register grades each report by class, with its date. N…", "date": "13 February 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/foundational", "pdf": true, "txt": "/research/papers/foundational.txt", "cff": "/research/papers/foundational.cff" }, "osf": "https://osf.io/y7qgd/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/Y7QGD", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Foundational", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "on-the-origin-of-scaling-laws", "roman": "F2", "kind": "framework", "title": "Framework Paper · The ARC Theory · Law I, the ARC Principle · On the Origin of Scaling Laws: Functional Equations and the Scaling Forms Behind the Law", "description": "A mouse's heart beats 600 times per minute; an elephant's beats 28; a blue whale's beats 6. This paper traces the origin of scaling laws across biological, physical, and computational systems, arguing that the recursive amplification mechanism identified by the ARC Principle provides a unifying expl…", "date": "22 February 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/on-the-origin-of-scaling-laws", "pdf": true, "txt": "/research/papers/on-the-origin-of-scaling-laws.txt", "cff": "/research/papers/on-the-origin-of-scaling-laws.cff" }, "osf": "https://osf.io/xzy9u/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/XZY9U", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/On-the-Origin-of-Scaling-Laws", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "eden-vision", "roman": "F3", "kind": "framework", "title": "Philosophical Statement · The ARC Theory · The Eden Protocol · A Vision for Intelligence That Tends Rather Than Consumes", "description": "Every engineering project begins with requirements. Every set of requirements begins with purpose. And every purpose, traced back far enough, arrives at the same question: what is this for? This paper articulates the philosophical foundations of the Eden Protocol -- the values, principles, and ethic…", "date": "22 February 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/eden-vision", "pdf": true, "cff": "/research/papers/eden-vision.cff", "txt": true }, "osf": "https://osf.io/9m3dg/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/9M3DG", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Eden-Vision", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "eden-engineering", "roman": "F4", "kind": "framework", "title": "Engineering Specification · The ARC Theory · The Eden Protocol · Eden Engineering: Architecture for Embedded AI Alignment That Scales With Capability", "description": "The engineering specification for embedded AI alignment: Three Ethical Loops and Six Questions, three-state ethical evaluation (Affirm, Deny, Investigate), the alignment scaling exponent, Embedded Correction and the Monitoring Removal Test. First published 22 February 2026; withdrawn on 14 July 2026 during a disclosure review, which produced Version 6.2 of 31 July 2026. Published in full on 19 September 2026 as Version 6.3.", "date": "22 February 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/eden-engineering", "pdf": true, "txt": "/research/papers/eden-engineering.txt", "cff": "/research/papers/eden-engineering.cff" }, "osf": "https://osf.io/awjr4/", "osf_public": true, "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/AWJR4", "github": null, "status": "published" }, { "slug": "executive-summary", "roman": "F5", "kind": "framework", "title": "Executive Summary · Recursive Dynamics · The ARC/Eden Research Programme", "description": "As AI gets smarter, it does not reliably get safer, and the methods used to measure safety are themselves unreliable. This executive summary provides a high-level overview of the entire ARC/Eden research programme, synthesising the findings of Papers I through VIII, the Foundational paper, and the E…", "date": "22 February 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/executive-summary", "pdf": true, "cff": "/research/papers/executive-summary.cff", "txt": true }, "osf": "https://osf.io/ewn5d/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/EWN5D", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Executive-Summary", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "master-table-of-contents", "roman": "F6", "kind": "framework", "title": "Master Table of Contents · Recursive Dynamics · The ARC Theory Paper Suite and Glossary", "description": "This document provides a master table of contents, reading guide, timeline, key results summary, and glossary for the complete ARC Theory Paper Suite. It serves as the entry point for navigating the full research programme, listing all papers in recommended reading order with cross-references, an…", "date": "16 March 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/master-table-of-contents", "pdf": true, "cff": "/research/papers/master-table-of-contents.cff", "txt": true }, "osf": "https://osf.io/vc9rx/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/VC9RX", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation/tree/main/papers/Master-Table-of-Contents", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "the-arc-theory-two-page-form", "kind": "supporting-paper", "supports": "the-arc-theory", "title": "Two-Page Form · The ARC Theory · Does Control Survive Recursive Self-Improvement?", "description": "The whole claim in one sitting: question, five claims, the five ARC Laws with their grades and status, dates, kill conditions, retraction and invitation.", "date": "17 August 2026", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/companions/the-arc-theory-two-page-form.html", "pdf": "/research/papers/companions/the-arc-theory-two-page-form.pdf", "cff": "/research/papers/companions/the-arc-theory-two-page-form.cff" }, "osf": "https://osf.io/mc5xw/", "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/MC5XW", "github": "https://github.com/MichaelDariusEastwood/arc-principle-validation", "status": "published" }, { "slug": "operational-definitions", "roman": null, "kind": "register", "title": "Register · The ARC Theory · Operational Definitions", "description": "Every equation the programme relies upon for Laws I to III of the ARC Theory, ranked by how much depends on it, with every symbol defined in plain words and paired with the measurement that would produce it; the notation of Laws IV and V is fixed in section 1 of their mathematics, version 1.0 (3 October 2026), until it joins this document. The source of truth for notation across the papers, the preregistrations and the website. It reports no result and asserts no value: every figure quoted here is carried from the paper that measured it, and that paper governs. 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This is a draft, and no State has negotiated, adopted or signed it.", "date": "5 October 2026", "version": "2.3", "formats": { "html": "/research/papers/hari-treaty-draft-instruments.html", "pdf": "/research/reports/hari-treaty-draft-instruments-working-draft-2026-10-08-v2-3.pdf", "cff": "/research/papers/hari-treaty-draft-instruments.cff" }, "osf": "https://osf.io/67mx8/", "osf_public": true, "doi": "https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/67MX8", "github": null, "status": "working draft" } ] }