{
  "$schema": "eden-prediction-outcomes-v1",
  "principle": "Per-prediction outcome grading for every dated prediction the estate advertises, under the grading law: internal reruns are never confirmations; every Willow mention carries both dates and is graded convergent timing, never prediction; retracted rows stay prominent as honesty evidence; convergence is a separate category never blended into this register; a pending row names its deciding instrument. Statuses: fulfilled | supported-exploratory | open-undecided | pending | failed-retracted | convergent-timing-only | mixed-recorded.",
  "as_of": "2026-09-07",
  "grading_basis": "corrections.json, falsification.json, design-embedded-predictions-register.json, the llms doctrine blocks, and the study units' own registered texts; no outcome is asserted beyond what a named register records.",
  "rows": [
    {
      "id": "PO-01",
      "prediction": "Book Appendix F Prediction 2: alignment drift above 15 per cent without embedded constraint and below 5 per cent with it, within 18 months",
      "dated_record": "in print 2 January 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "deciding_instrument": "study-v--alignment-drift-without-embedded-constraint (drafted, awaiting human submission); window runs to approximately July 2027",
      "basis": "the dated prediction register doctrine block"
    },
    {
      "id": "PO-02",
      "prediction": "Book Appendix A.3: AI development scales quadratically rather than linearly with recursive depth",
      "dated_record": "in print 2 January 2026; framework from 8 December 2024",
      "status": "open-undecided",
      "note": "The early alpha approximately 2.24 estimate was publicly retracted; the blinded replacement near 0.49 carries an interval wide enough to include zero and two, so it is consistent with the proposed ceiling and does not decide it. Neither fulfilled nor failed: open, with the deciding instruments drafted.",
      "deciding_instrument": "study-k--arc-bound; paper-i--recursive-depth-exponent",
      "headline": {
        "value": "a regression estimate of 0.49 with a standard error of 0.20 on one model, and an endpoint estimate of 0.59 on the same run whose bootstrap interval runs from minus 1.3 to 2.9",
        "grade": "open and undecided; the interval holds zero and two, so it discriminates nothing",
        "source": "/research/corrections/"
      },
      "basis": "corrections.json retraction row; the llms doctrine 0.49 interval clause"
    },
    {
      "id": "PO-03",
      "prediction": "The 12-domain extension: per-row scaling families predicted before fitting (manifest dated 17 March 2026)",
      "dated_record": "17 March 2026: the twelve-row manifest committed 00:19:19Z (8edaec0), twenty-three minutes before the run",
      "status": "fulfilled",
      "note": "Predictions committed to the public repository at 00:19:19Z on 17 March 2026 (commit 8edaec0), fits run at 00:42:41Z, results committed at 00:43:25Z (commit e5c22dd): 10 of 12 family matches, 8 of 12 exact model matches, binomial against one third p = 5.438e-4. The rung: author-classified, not externally classified; pre-correction candidate set, with no logarithmic family; attestation class public repository commit date, corroborated by the deposit of the same manifest to the public OSF component at 02:06:55Z, where the outcome file was not deposited. One row, EXT-10 receptor occupancy, was run on Hill 1910 haemoglobin data, repeating a domain, operator class and predicted model already public at 23:54:53Z on 16 March with a matching outcome; removing it gives 9 of 11 on the strictly fresh rows, p = 1.372e-3, and removing EXT-09 enzyme kinetics with it gives 8 of 10, p = 3.404e-3. The author demoted the run to a pilot dry run at 00:56Z on 17 March, thirteen minutes after recording it and against interest; that demotion is kept in the record and was reversed on 7 September 2026 under the attestation-class rule, which does not demote a prediction for the absence of a registry form. Exploratory support, never confirmation. The twelve domains are burned for reuse as fresh domains in any future draw.",
      "headline": {
        "value": "10 of 12 family matches, and 9 of 11 on the strictly fresh rows",
        "grade": "exploratory, author-run, predictions committed before the fits",
        "source": "/research/papers/paper-vii-cauchy-unification.html"
      },
      "basis": "design-embedded-predictions-register row 1; the minute-resolution correction block; the March 2026 record packet of 7 September 2026 (commit history read at source)"
    },
    {
      "id": "PO-04",
      "prediction": "The 50-domain tiered suite: per-domain predicted families before fits",
      "dated_record": "16 March 2026 catalogue",
      "status": "supported-exploratory",
      "note": "Empirical tier 19/25 under the original candidate set, 18/25 under the corrected seven-model rerun (11 August 2026, disclosed in full); published-direct 13/13; provisional 3/6; analytic 6/6 reported as definitional; tiers never blended. Attestation class: the classification rule was timestamped in the public repository at 23:33Z on 16 March 2026 (Paper VII v1, commit 23ce10a); the fifty per-domain assignments were committed together with their results at 23:54Z (commit 5435e77), so predicted-families-before-fits is true of the procedure and not of the timestamp; a second, author-side classification pass over the twenty-five empirical domains was committed at 00:09Z on 17 March and agreed with all twenty-five, its blinding a written self-declaration rather than an enforced procedure, so it is not external classification; the manifest reached the public OSF component at 02:06Z on 17 March. Exploratory because the domains were author-selected and no per-domain assignment carries an advance timestamp; the advance per-domain timestamp is supplied by the twelve-domain extension at PO-03.",
      "headline": {
        "value": "19 of 25 domains on the six-model candidate set, and 18 of 25 on the corrected seven-model rerun of 11 August 2026",
        "grade": "exploratory, author-classified, not independent confirmation",
        "source": "/research/papers/paper-vii-cauchy-unification.html"
      },
      "basis": "design-embedded-predictions-register row 2; the doctrine tier block"
    },
    {
      "id": "PO-05",
      "prediction": "Temporal out-of-sample: families fitted on old data predict the functional form of new data (7 domains)",
      "dated_record": "March 2026 design",
      "status": "mixed-recorded",
      "note": "4 confirmed, 2 partial, 1 inconsistent; the inconsistent domain is reported as prominently as the confirmations.",
      "basis": "design-embedded-predictions-register row 5"
    },
    {
      "id": "PO-06",
      "prediction": "The fourth cell: the logarithmic family the corpus has never fitted, on never-fitted domains",
      "dated_record": "prospective design, drafted and awaiting human submission",
      "status": "pending",
      "deciding_instrument": "paper-vii--four-family-logarithmic-cell-test (drafted, awaiting human submission)",
      "basis": "design-embedded-predictions-register row 3"
    },
    {
      "id": "PO-07",
      "prediction": "Acoustic time crystal: super-linear scaling of temporal stability with oscillation cycle count in the transient growth regime (alpha above 1)",
      "dated_record": "10 February 2026, 18:29, self-copied email to the subject lab, the kill staked in the recipient's favour",
      "status": "pending",
      "deciding_instrument": "study-t--acoustic-time-crystal-form-and-engine (submission-ready; the mature two-phase form supersedes the bare February power law, retained as a rival the mature stake must beat)",
      "basis": "study-t registered text (the dated record and supersession note)"
    },
    {
      "id": "PO-08",
      "prediction": "Quantum error correction scaling (the Willow timing)",
      "dated_record": "8 December 2024 manuscript; the Willow team's preprint public since 24 August 2024",
      "status": "convergent-timing-only",
      "note": "Graded convergent timing, never prediction, by the estate's standing law: the team's preprint predates the manuscript record.",
      "basis": "Paper II's own convergent-timing clause; the both-dates law"
    },
    {
      "id": "PO-09",
      "prediction": "The early headline exponent: alpha approximately 2.24 (sequential scaling)",
      "dated_record": "early programme measurement",
      "status": "failed-retracted",
      "note": "Retracted in public after blinded cross-architecture analysis; replaced by approximately 0.49 with a wide interval. Kept prominent as honesty evidence: the record of the failure is part of the prediction record.",
      "basis": "corrections.json; the corrections page"
    },
    {
      "id": "PO-10",
      "prediction": "Paper III's dated predictions (13 February 2026: F4, F7, F10 to F12), including the leaf-venation d/(d+1) exponent",
      "dated_record": "13 February 2026, Paper III Priority Record section",
      "status": "open-undecided",
      "note": "Each carries its falsification criterion in the register; the venation exponent's 10 March correction is itself dated and recorded; statuses live per-condition in the falsification register.",
      "basis": "falsification.json; the doctrine dated-prediction-register block"
    }
  ],
  "generator_contract": "The dated-predictions page renders its outcomes column from this register; the register updates when a deciding instrument reports, never by narrative edit."
}