cff-version: 1.2.0
version: '2.1'
message: 'If you use or discuss this paper, please cite it using this metadata.'
title: 'Register · The ARC Theory · The Dated Prediction Register: Forward Predictions as One Verifiable Chain'
authors:
  - family-names: 'Eastwood'
    given-names: 'Michael Darius'
    orcid: 'https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3222-7442'
date-released: '2026-10-05'
url: 'https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/dated-prediction-register.html'
license: 'CC-BY-4.0'
identifiers:
  - type: doi
    value: '10.17605/OSF.IO/C3NTF'
    description: 'OSF component DOI for this paper (dated-prediction-register)'
  - type: doi
    value: '10.17605/OSF.IO/6C5XB'
    description: 'OSF umbrella DOI for the ARC / Eden Research Programme'
preferred-citation:
  type: article
  title: 'Register · The ARC Theory · The Dated Prediction Register: Forward Predictions as One Verifiable Chain'
  authors:
    - family-names: 'Eastwood'
      given-names: 'Michael Darius'
      orcid: 'https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3222-7442'
  date-published: '2026-08-25'
  url: 'https://www.michaeldariuseastwood.com/research/papers/dated-prediction-register.html'
  doi: '10.17605/OSF.IO/C3NTF'
  identifiers:
    - type: doi
      value: '10.17605/OSF.IO/C3NTF'
      description: 'OSF component DOI for this paper (dated-prediction-register)'
    - type: doi
      value: '10.17605/OSF.IO/6C5XB'
      description: 'OSF umbrella DOI for the ARC / Eden Research Programme'
    - type: doi
      value: '10.17605/OSF.IO/P8CKQ'
      description: 'Theory-level predictions preregistered on OSF: DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/P8CKQ, registered 8 September 2026 (version 1.100), updated 13 September 2026 (version 1.102), twenty-two propositions. Companion: Register · The ARC Theory · Operational Definitions, version 1.9.1, 5 October 2026.'
  abstract: |
    Abstract. Five independent cold-model assessments of this programme converged on one criticism: that its predictions were not registered in advance, and that its confirmations might therefore be accommodations. This working paper assembles the programme's forward predictions as a single dated chain and states exactly what that chain does and does not establish. It does not make the programme preregistered in the registry sense, and it never uses that word on its own for anything except an accepted registry submission: a design fixed by a dated timestamp before its run is called preregistered by timestamp. It establishes something narrower and checkable: every core quantitative claim has at least one dated artefact fixing it before the measurement that tested it, with the exception of Paper VII’s fifty-domain cohort, whose predictions were not timestamped in advance of their own fits, and a stranger can verify each link in minutes from public materials. The register's claim is deliberately an ensemble claim: any single prediction here may have been stated earlier by someone else, and where that is known it is listed as convergence rather than threat; what no earlier record contains is all of these statements together, in one record, before the programme's experiments ran. The chain runs from a sealed manuscript bundle of 8 December 2024 through a printed edition of 2 January 2026 carrying nine numbered predictions with falsification criteria, a public in-paper priority ledger of 13 February 2026 with named falsifiers, a live laboratory notebook commenced 10 March 2026, result files of 11 and 12 March 2026 whose headers freeze designs and planted answers before responses, a tiered 50-domain suite of 16 March 2026 with per-domain predicted families, and a complete preregistration folder of 17 March 2026 whose locked manifest fixed twelve predictions before their fits, to the programme's staged draft registrations and its standing unproven wagers. The chain's sharpest artefact is a correction: public commit history shows the author demoting his own successful 10/12 result from “pre-registered” to “pilot dry run” thirteen minutes after recording it, months before any external critic existed. Version 2.0 adds a census of every dated prediction in the programme (Section 8): the theory registration’s twenty-two propositions with their registers and kill conditions, the registered corrector-class audit, each draft design preregistered by timestamp, the printed predictions and the predictions fixed inside designs, each with its date, the kind of record that dates it and its status.

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