Revised robust sequential-recursion exponent alpha_sequential approximately 0.49 by regression (sub-linear; SE 0.20), with an endpoint estimate of 0.59 (bootstrap interval [-1.3, 2.9])

The claim - verbatim

Michael Darius Eastwood reported a revised robust regression estimate of alpha_sequential of approximately 0.49 (r-squared 0.86, SE 0.20; drawn from Gemini 3 Flash) on 22 January 2026 in Paper II (OSF DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/6C5XB), replacing the earlier 2.24 estimate, since retracted. The endpoint estimate on the same run is 0.59, with a bootstrap interval of [-1.3, 2.9]. The defensible statement is a sub-linear point estimate from a single-model regression; the bootstrap interval belongs to the endpoint estimate, holds both zero and two, and so settles no regime. alpha > 1 remains an open dated prediction, not an observed finding.

Anchored evidence

• research/papers/paper-ii-experimental-validation.html (the paper's words, its notation transliterated: 'alpha_{seq} = 0.49 (regression, r^2 = 0.86, SE = 0.20; endpoint estimate 0.59, boot CI [-1.3, 2.9])')
• CANONICAL_CLAIMS_REGISTER.md ('robust v13 approx 0.49 (sub-linear)'; interval [-1.3, 2.9])

Limits and citation guidance - what this claim does not support, and how to cite it

Limits. Do not claim 'super-linear' or 'positive'; cite 0.49 as the regression estimate with its SE 0.20, and the bootstrap interval [-1.3, 2.9] only with the endpoint estimate 0.59, never beside 0.49 alone.